Helldivers 2 sales curve is 'rare and amazing,' says gobsmacked industry analyst: 'I feel like Steve Irwin sighting a rare bird'

1 month ago 92

(Image credit: Arrowhead)

We all know by now that Helldivers 2 is really good and really popular, but Circana industry analyst Mat Piscatella says the game's sales success in its first few weeks of launch is almost unprecedented—and he's pretty excited about it.

"Feel like Steve Irwin sighting a rare bird or something," Piscatella said in a recent tweet thread. "Rare and amazing, in an Australian accent even."

Helldivers II US sales went up yet again during its 3rd week in market. An honest-to-goodness inverse decay curve so far. Feel like Steve Irwin sighting a rare bird or something. Rare and amazing, in an Australian accent even.

The thrill is driven by what Piscatella said is "an honest-to-goodness inverse decay curve," which he explained is a phenomenon that occurs when a game flips the usual course of sales, which go hardest at release and then tail off at varying rates.

"It's rare, particularly for bigger games. Just saying 'growth' doesn't explain the nature—as 'growth' could be temporary, ie from discounting," Piscatella tweeted. "Using the term 'inverse decay curve' denotes that baseline sales are improving, unrelated to short-term things that can impact incremental demand."

Piscatella told PC Gamer that Circana (formerly known as the NPD Group) bases its analysis on data collected from all major retailers, as well as digital sales provided by participants in the Digital Leader Panel, which includes a range of companies including Helldivers 2 publisher Sony. Circana normally only comments publicly on monthly data, he said, but "I found what was happening in the weekly data to be particularly fun and wanted to share this nugget."

"What I'm really referring to here is how, over the first 12 weeks or so of a new release, particularly games that launch outside of Q4, there's a demand curve for most games that starts very high with sales peaking in week 1, and then decaying each week over time, until demand flattens out," Piscatella explained. "I posted an example of this in that Twitter thread. Helldivers 2 has bucked that trend, and I can't recall offhand the last time a game has shown this behavior at this scale."

So what is unique about an "inverse decay curve" and why do I use that term instead of "growth"? Well, internet, it's not because I'm being "obnoxious" (but thanks for that) - but because it's a real thing. This is what a typical sales decay curve can look like for a Q1 release: Normally, sales are biggest for a new release during week 1, and fall over time. With an "inverse decay curve" the trend reverses. It's rare, particularly for bigger games. Just saying "growth" doesn't explain the nature - as "growth" could be temporary, ie from discounting. Using the term "inverse decay curve" denotes that baseline sales are improving, unrelated to short-term things that can impact incremental demand. I mean, or just keep saying it's pretentious or obnoxious that's cool too. Live your dream.

The success of Helldivers 2 is particularly noteworthy given the server woes that plagued the game during its first couple weeks of launch. Unexpected demand absolutely crushed the infrastructure, to the point that Arrowhead had to impose a cap on the player count and draft Sony into the war effort to get it working properly. I can say from firsthand experience that it was incredibly frustrating, and Piscatella said that such problems can do real damage to many games facing similar problems, but in the case of Helldivers 2 it didn't happen.

"My read on it (and I have not yet played the game personally) is that [Helldivers 2] allows players to create their own stories and have fun even as things go sideways in game," Piscatella said. "Although it's not technically the correct term, its form of emergent gameplay and more cooperative nature (even with friendly fire on) has been hugely attractive, as is seen by how sales have continued to grow since launch (which, as I pointed out, is very rare for a new release)."

The inverse decay curve "won't last forever" and sales will start to decline, possibly quite soon, "as demand normalizes and word of mouth stops reaching new interested ears," Piscatella said. "But for the moment at least, particularly in the 2024 market, it's an incredibly encouraging and refreshing thing to see."

As for how Helldivers 2 managed to pull off this rare-bird feat, he cited a number of potential reasons, including the focus on co-op, the $40 price tag, launching simultaneously on PC and PlayStation 5, and "the high potential for in-game shenanigans."

"I'm sure those really into the game would have even more reasons," he said. "Ultimately, however, sometimes the right game hits at just the right time. If developers or publishers could figure out exactly why this happens they'd have bottled it by now."

Whatever the reason, Helldivers 2 remains a monster: It's currently the top-selling game on Steam and holds the third spot on Steam's most-played games list, behind Counter-Strike 2 and Dota 2, and well ahead of fourth-place holder PUBG: Battlegrounds. And there's more to come: Earlier today, following numerous leaks, Arrowhead finally confirmed that playable mechs are coming soon.

Andy has been gaming on PCs from the very beginning, starting as a youngster with text adventures and primitive action games on a cassette-based TRS80. From there he graduated to the glory days of Sierra Online adventures and Microprose sims, ran a local BBS, learned how to build PCs, and developed a longstanding love of RPGs, immersive sims, and shooters. He began writing videogame news in 2007 for The Escapist and somehow managed to avoid getting fired until 2014, when he joined the storied ranks of PC Gamer. He covers all aspects of the industry, from new game announcements and patch notes to legal disputes, Twitch beefs, esports, and Henry Cavill. Lots of Henry Cavill.