Betting Systems: Do They Really Work?

Bettors of all levels can use betting systems, and there are strategies that work for virtually any betting preference. It does not matter how often you bet, how much you want to bet with, or what types of bets you opt for. There are loads of betting systems out there, and you can even pinch aspects of two or more, and merge them into a tactic that works for your wagers.

Now before going into all the layouts and betting plans, it is important always to remember the following. There are no proven, guaranteed to win techniques. Or that is, there are some surefire strategies to win, but these are for the most part, shunned by casinos and sportsbooks. Anyone who uses them is putting themselves in risk of getting suspended, or worse, banned from a casino or sportsbook. With that in mind, let's crack on and check out the different strategy types.

Betting Strategies By Methodology

If we were to start listing off all the strategies, we would end up with a messy pool of many opposing strategies. Instead, we will look at how the methods work and combine similar betting theories together. Grouping them into categories, so that you know exactly where you stand.

Progressive Betting Systems

This system is based around you changing your stake after each game. The most famous progressive betting system is the Martingale system. Take a simple 1:1 odds/evens bet on a roulette table.

You bet $1 on odd, and if you win your bet, then in your next bet you place $1 again. If the ball lands on even and you lose your bet, you will double your stake for the next round. With a bet of $2 on the second round, if you win, you will receive $4. Subtract the $2 staked that round and the $1 staked in the round before, and you are on a $1 profit. This can be done with greater multipliers (such as tripling your stake instead of doubling), and on other types of bets. But the danger is that after 5 rounds, that doubling can see your $1 suddenly jump up to $32, and if it loses a further 5 times, that jumps up to $1,024.

Ok, so the chances of you losing that many times on a 50-50 bet are low to say the least. However, you should still have a good big bankroll to be able to accommodate it, as if you cannot keep playing, then you have lost all that money. Other progressive betting systems include the Fibonacci system (increasing your stake using the Fibonacci sequence), and the Reverse Martingale (you increase on a loss and go back to the start on a win).

Positive and Negative Progressions

There are also betting systems that also include negative progressions. These systems, such as Labouchere or D'Alembert, are far less aggressive and intend to negate your losses. They involve increasing your stake on a loss and decreasing it on a loss. Or, using a similar type of progression in which the previous result will either increase your stake, or decrease it. Either way, you are not just building and building like the Martingale. Through these systems, you will probably curb your full potential winnings, but you will definitely cut your losses. It is aimed to bring more balance to players who are on losing streaks. And, ensuring you don't get too carried away with winning streaks.

Verdict:

This betting system is traditionally associated with casino games, with fixed odds on wagers that have fixed probabilities. The external factors and many variables in sports betting make it a little harder to use progressive betting systems, but you can also manage to pull it off there. They are not only allowed by casinos and sportsbooks, but in many cases encouraged. That may put you off, but there are ways that these can work.

Hedging Betting Systems

The most common hedging tactic is arbitrage betting. This strategy requires you to sign up for numerous sportsbooks. You must shop around for the odds on a single sports bet, and when you find that there is a great discrepancy between the odds at two different sportsbooks, you strike. You place a bet on one line at each sportsbook and measure your stake so that it doesn't matter which bet wins. The result will be you pocketing a profit. It is easier to explain with numbers:

Sportsbook A Odds

• Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline: 1.18
• Stefanos Tsitsipas Moneyline: 5

Sportsbook B Odds

• Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline: 1.38
• Stefanos Tsitsipas Moneyline: 3.1

The discrepancy between these odds gives the arbitrage bettor a good chance to make a certain profit. They pick the best odds on Alcaraz (1.38) and Tsitsipas (5), and have to divide their stake across the game. The bettor wants to put $100 on Tsitsipas, so they must put $362.31 on Alcaraz

• $100 on Stefanos Tsitsipas to Win $500
• $362.32 on Carlos Alcaraz to Win $500

It doesn't matter which player wins the game, the bettor will pocket $500. After spending $462.32 on the wagers, they have made $37.68 – and that is guaranteed regardless of who wins. Note that the bettor had to spend over $450 to win just over $35, a return of just over 8% on their stake. And the odds used here are quite generous, in most cases the arbitrage bettors will be happy taking a profit of 5% or less.

Other Types of Hedging

Matched betting uses the same “cover every outcome” hedging strategy, but it is far more profitable. Because the original stake is a bonus that you receive in a sportsbook. Taking the same example from above, let's say that Sportsbook B gifts you a mighty bonus of $250.

You then places that $250 bonus on Alcaraz at odds of 1.38. The stake is not part of the potential winnings, so you will only get $95 if you win. Therefore, you have to stake $19 on Tsitsipas at Sportsbook A.

• $19 on Stefanos Tsitsipas to Win $95
• $250 Bonus Bet on Carlos Alcaraz to Win $95 (Minus the Bonus Stake)

In either case, you have made a profit of $76 and only had to use $19 of your own money. But matched betting is seen as bonus abuse. Sportsbooks that catch you placing bets of $362.32 and other strange numbers may suspect you of arbitrage betting, and can suspend your account.

The only legal form of hedge betting is dutching. This is a type of hedge bet in which there are lots of possible outcomes, and you cover a handful only. There is a possibility of losing, but if any of your predicted outcomes come through, you can win a little profit. This is usually done on horse race betting, or with outright bets in a league. The odds must be long enough though.

Verdict:

This method is used predominantly in sports betting. It cannot be used in casinos as the odds are fixed and there are no possibilities to hedge bets. This strategy provides solid ways to win, as the principle of hedging is to bet on every single outcome in a single betting market. One bet will win, but your goal here is to ensure that the win covers the stake on the lost bet. Sound too good to be true? Because it is. Most sportsbooks will suspend or ban suspected hedge bettors. Unless, that is, you are dutching.

Value Betting Strategies

Value betting is all about the odds given, and trying to work out whether the oddsmakers have made any grossly over or underestimated odds. A lot of bettors use statistical data to work out the probability of the bets to win, and then see if the sportsbook has given a much better price on their wagers.

It doesn’t sound as far fetched as you may think. Sportsbooks use algorithms based on stats and try to figure out the fairest odds on each line. They cannot shorten the moneyline odds on the favorite too much, as it would make the odds on the underdog extremely long. In some cases, the teams are more evenly matched which brings excellent opportunities on either team.

Essentially, through value betting you are looking for bets at the right price, and then estimate how much you should stake on them. The Kelly Criterion can tell you exactly how much to wager. But it requires you to come up with the percentage of how likely the bet is to win. It is not easy, but there are tools and AI software out there that can help you come close.

Verdict:

Value betting is useful for bettors to understand how odds work and assess the probability for themselves. The bit that is difficult is coming up with a percentage of how likely the bet is really going to win. This can take time to get used to and requires data-driven analysis. You can always shop around for odds to gauge the real probability for yourself, and even check out betting exchanges. The latter shows you how much your peers are pricing the bets, and how many people are buying them.

Value Betting Part II – Betting Against the Crowd

It is no secret that sportsbooks use juice to cover their losses. All the odds are slightly shorter than what they should be mathematically so that the sportsbook can ensure a profit. Just pick any betting market and bet on each individual outcome and you will see that the maths doesn’t add up.

But sportsbooks do not apply juice evenly. In most cases, they will add more juice to the bets that sell the most. By that, we mean betting on favorites in moneylines and overs in totals markets.

Whenever there is a great demand for bets on favorites or over markets, there is usually better value betting against the crowd. This doesn’t necessarily involve picking the underdog each time, but to consider positive spreads. The lines may be slightly shifted against the favorite, which opens up the possibility to bet on the underdogs with a positive spread.

Verdict:

Betting against the crowd comes with its own risks. If you solely bet on the underdog and unders markets, be prepared for a lot of losses. When you win, you may be able to make back the money, but only if the odds are long enough.

Live Betting Markets – Using Your Gut

Unfortunately, a lot of bettors bypass live betting. Maybe it is the “inconvenience” of checking the odds during a game. Or perhaps, the stress of making quick decisions in the blink of an eye. But this market is perhaps the best for the real sports fans, who watch games and are familiar with all the teams and players.

Your expertise may not give you insights into how the coach will line up the players, nor whether any players may pick up injuries before the game. However, once the game starts, you may see familiar patterns or indicators as to how the game will pan out.

Sportsbooks use software to determine the odds based on the stats. But they lack that human instinct. You may spot things that the algorithms cannot decipher. Such as a player who is not focused, or getting impatient and reckless. Timing is extremely important, and you must be prepared to make flash decisions. But if you can pull it off, then you may score some massive wins.

Verdict:

This is really a good option for anyone who watches games. Betting softwares cannot pick up the fine details that an ardent fan will, and therein lies opportunities to cash in huge profit. But it does require quick decision making and forces the bettor to be more reckless with their quick predictions.

Parlay Betting Systems – For the Biggest Returns

Parlays, also called multiples or accumulators, combine numerous straight wagers into one big bet. Should all the selections on the bet win, then you will get tremendous rewards. As the parlay multiplies the odds of all the selections together into one.

These wagers have the biggest potential returns, but you cannot underestimate their risk. Even if you are picking 5 favorites to win their games. Individually, there is nothing to suggest that they won’t win their games. But chances are, 1 or 2 of those 5 games will end in a victory for the underdog.

Some betting systems deconstruct parlays into webs of interconnected parlays, to extend your coverage in case of a loss. Round robin bets are system wagers that do just that. Instead of betting on 5 selections to win, you can bet on a number of combinations of those 5 teams to win. But you will need to split your stake that many ways too. For example:

• Parlay (1 Stake): ABCDE
• Round Robin Doubles (10 Stakes): AB, AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE, DE
• Round Robin Trebles (10 Stakes): ABC, ABD, ABE, ACD, ACE, ADE, BCD, BCE, BDE, CDE

Another form of coverage can come in teasers and pleasers. These work with parlays that only have point spreads. The idea is that in teasers, you add a number of points to every single spread line to make it easier to win. The odds will get shorter. With pleasers, you decrease the lines by a fixed number, increasing the risk and the odds.

Verdict:

Using parlays and alternate full cover bets is a great way to shoot for bigger returns. Round robins are generally better when the odds are longer – which is why they are used more often in horse race betting. But they are a useful tool for any bettor, alongside parlays, SGP bets and teaser/pleasers. Bear the risk in mind when parlay betting, and stake your wagers accordingly.

Rounding Up the Betting Systems

We have run through many different strategies, relating to stakes, types of bets, valuing the odds, and even using your gut instincts. Alongside these strategies, you can also look into ways to expand your sports betting scope. Namely, betting on alternative betting markets or using niche props.

Finding the strategy that works best for you is really a case of trial and error. The hedge betting strategies, while proven to bring wins, do put you in a lot of danger. And you have to stake a lot of money in order to bring small wins. It usually brings around 5% profit on your wagered money – if you can find the discrepancies.

Progressive betting systems are useful in casino gaming, but they can also lead to tremendous losses. Using positive and negative progressions can help negate your losses, but it can be a slow to make profit.

Best Strategy For Your Betting

There is no one way about it. You may be more than happy to pick the Fibonacci and use it in all your betting endeavors. It is highly worth reading out about these different betting systems and finding out exactly how they work.

Then, you will have the means to create a betting system of your own. It can use elements of value betting, progressive systems, quick live bets, and even mix in some hedging.